“I think it’s important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. The normal way we conduct our lives is we reason by analogy. [With analogy] we are doing this because it’s like something else that was done, or it is like what other people are doing. [With first principles] you boil things down to the most fundamental truths…and then reason up from there.”Elon Musk (1971 – )
First Principles Thinking is a powerful mental model for creating non-linear outcomes.
Big thanks to @SahilBloom for sharing these ideas on Twitter.
First Principles Thinking is how people like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates make good, long-term decisions without needing to know everything about a complex situation.
It requires a willingness to ask hard questions.
It also requires a willingness to answer hard questions.
First Principles Questions
If you’ve read my post on The Importance of Questions, then you’ll know that I believe questions are the keys to unlocking the knowledge to get whatever we want. Access to everything we want is locked up in someone else’s head, and questions are our keys.
If we can ask the right questions, we can get anything we want.
That being said there are some questions that we can ask to get us primed for First Principles Thinking.
Here are a few of those questions:
What is the problem I am trying to solve?
We waste a lot of time and energy trying to solve the “wrong” problem. If we can identify exactly what it is we need to do, then we can eliminate a lot of that waste.
Focus is powerful when applied correctly.
Identify the right problem, before trying to solve it.
What do I know to be true about this problem?
Write down everything you know to be true about the problem. (Don’t just run through them in your head.) Writing them down allows us the judge the ideas accurately.
It wouldn’t help to include things about previously attempted solutions too.
Why do I believe these “truths” to be true? How do I know they are true?
Clearly identifying the source of our beliefs is key to understanding the beliefs. It also allows us to analyze our thought habits on a deeper level.
It’s crucial to be ruthless in their validity and integrity. If we lie to ourselves here, we won’t be able to make sound decisions later on.
How can I support these beliefs? Is there real evidence to support them?
Find hard, tangible evidence that proves these beliefs to be true. If you can’t find it, or the sources aren’t reliable, then you’ve learned something about those beliefs – they’re shoddy.
Are my emotions clouding my judgement and reasoning?
Emotional decisions typically produce bad (and expensive) outcomes. Remove the emotions from the process. Emotions have a place, but not when making long-term, complex, and important choices. Intentional and planned decisions are what’s needed to push things beyond what they currently are.
What alternative beliefs or view points might exist?
Acknowledging and understanding other viewpoints is a skill that cannot be cultivated enough.
So much lies beyond what we understand. Everything has something to teach us.
Seek out other beliefs. Embrace them. Let them enrich you.
But also, evaluate them on their merits. Ask the same fundamental questions about them.
What are the consequences of being wrong in my original beliefs?
There’s risk in everything, even what we already know. It’s important to understand the stakes and manage risk. Otherwise, the downsides can wipe us out unexpectedly.
We have to know what will happen if we’re wrong.
First Principles 101
First principles starts with questioning our beliefs.
Asking the above questions will us help drill down to the fundamental truths of a problem and ultimately identify a better solution. (Assuming there is one.)
If this starts to seem like we’re thinking like insatiably curious children, then we’re on the right track.
Let’s start with some definitions:
First Principle – a foundational assumption or proposition. It’s foundational in that it cannot be deduced from other assumptions or prepositions.
First principles are like elements. They can’t be broken down any further.
First Principles Thinking – a problem-solving technique that requires breaking down complex problems into their most basic, foundational elements.
The main idea is to take a bottom-up approach; ground ourselves in foundational truths and build up from there.
Typically, when we encounter difficult problems, our inclination is to rely on base-level assumptions that we’ve been told are true, or believe to be true.
We do this because it’s quick and easy, but also because those ideas have probably been true in the past.
This leads to unimaginative, linear solutions that just mimic what has been done before.
This is known as “Reasoning by Analogy“. It leads to solutions that are the same as something else. It has its place, but it’s not great for solving complex problems in need of imaginative solutions.
“Reasoning by Analogy” is a great rule for dealing with problems in which speed is paramount and novel solutions aren’t the goal.
Solutions are to problems like foundations are to houses.
If the foundation is unstable, the house will collapse. If the foundation is sturdy, the house will stay up.
First principles help create a sturdy foundation.
Elon Musk & Space X
Let’s check out the case of Elon Musk and Space X to see First Principles Thinking in action.
Complex problem: how to send a rocket to Mars.
First logical step: obtain rocket.
Musk, as rich as he is, discovered that buying rockets wasn’t a feasible plan. He found that they go for a whopping $65 million each.
Now now the complex problem is getting more complex and we’re further from the solution.
It’s time to apply First Principles thinking – let’s start with asking why do rockets cost $65 million?
The answer to this question is pretty much – because that’s how they’ve always been built and how much they need to cost. Tradition essentially.
Not exactly an iron clad answer.
But now we know that we can think of rockets in an entirely different way.
Time to ask even more basic and fundamental questions – What is a rocket made of? What are the value of these materials on the open market?
Musk finds out that rockets are made of Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. All of which cost about 2% of a typical rocket.
Musk decides that he can build his own rockets, for much less than $65 million.
Rather than accept the truths that he’s been told about rockets, Musk grounded his problem-solving efforts in First Principles.
Today, Space X has rockets that are safely delivering humans to and from space and the dreams of colonizing Mars are closer to being realized.
Methods of First Principles
There is no set way to establish First Principles.
However, there are a few methods that work pretty well. One is known as Socratic Questioning. It’s a technique where we use systemic questioning to drill down to fundamental truths.
Some questions that can be used for Socratic Questioning are as follows:
Why do I believe this to be true?
How do I know this is true?
How can I support this belief?
What alternative viewpoints might exist?
Question everything. Never stop asking why. Become an endlessly curious child.
The world is already full of unimaginative, copycat solutions and this only leads us to predictable linear outcomes.
Using First Principles Thinking is difficult and time consuming, but it’s also a solid path to conjuring creative solutions that lead to non-linear outcomes.
Aristotle defined First Principles as “the first basis from which a thing is known.”
The world’s greatest thinkers and problem solvers use the same methods when solving complex problems: grounding themselves in first principles and building a solution from there.